NFL Power Rankings And Week 5 Projections

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If you are new to these rankings here is a summary of how they work

The power rating column is a power rating on each team.  It is based on what the team has done statistically and who they have done it against.  Early in the season, the ratings go back to the last few weeks of the previous season adjusting for changes at major positions.  Adjustments have also been made for in-season injuries.  Mostly at the QB position.  You could set a point spread based on the power rating by taking the differential in two teams and adjusting by 2.5 for home-field advantage.

The Defensive rating is the number of points the team is expected to give up to an average offense.

The Offensive rating is the number of points the team is expected to score against an average defense.

The offensive rushing rating is a number that calculates how far above or below the team performs in yardage against the average of their opponents.  In other words, if a team...

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2019 Week 3 Power Rankings

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Firstly I want to go over how you should be reading these numbers and what they mean.

The power rating column is a power rating on each team.  It is based on what the team has done statistically and who they have done it against.  Early in the season, the ratings go back to the last few weeks of the previous season adjusting for changes at major positions.  You could set a point spread based on the power rating by taking the differential in two teams and adjusting by 2.5 for home-field advantage.

The Defensive rating is the number of points the team is expected to give up to an average offense.

The Offensive rating is the number of points the team is expected to score against an average defense.

The offensive rushing rating is a number that calculates how far above or below the team performs in yardage against the average of their opponents.  In other words if a team plays a defense that averages 100 yards against in rushing they will get more...

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NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

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Here are the power rankings after week 1 in the NFL.

The rankings are taking into account the last 4 weeks and playoffs from 2018-19.  Adjustments for new players on each team have been made.  

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NFL Week 2 Projections

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Here are the projections for this week in the NFL.  

 

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NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

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Here are the power rankings after week 1 in the NFL.

The rankings are taking into account the last 4 weeks and playoffs from 2018-19.  Adjustments for new players on each team have been made.  

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How To Win Your Survivor Pool

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One of the most painful days of the NFL season is the day you are eliminated from your survivor pool.  You pick a 7 point favorite at home and they get upset out of nowhere.  Of course, you will track the next few weeks to see how you would have done and inevitably you would have kept on winning.  So frustrating.  

If you are unfamiliar with survivor pools or knockout pools the rules are pretty easy.  You select 1 (sometimes multiple) teams each week without a point spread.  That team must win (in some cases tie) and you advance to the next week.  If your team loses you are out of the pool.  You may only pick a team once and then never use them again.

It goes without saying that the fewer entries you are competing with the greater the chance you have of winning.  Entering a pool of 20 entrants gives you a 5% chance as opposed to one with 100 entries which give you a 1% chance.  How we look at percentages and human...

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Updated 2019 NFL Win Totals

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Once again I will be going over each teams win total with juice based on the current lines at Pinnacle.  The below table shows my expected win total for each team.  I calculated the EV based on the expected wins and the current line with a to win amount of $100.  If your lines differ much from Pinnacle you will need to calculate the EV based on those lines.  If you sign up for my free beginners course you will understand better how to calculate that along with a spreadsheet to give you the probability of the occurrence based on the juice.

I first looked at the totals against my model 3 weeks ago.  Most of these moves have gone against us.  If you were able to get in on the prices then you have a lot more value than if you play them today.  But there is still value to be had.

Obviously, the big mover has been the Colts for obvious reasons.  Andrew Luck was in a category similar to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.  Until Rodgers last...

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Don't Go Broke! How to Practice Proper Money Management In Sports Betting.

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Bankroll management and risk management are so critical that when done wrong or not at all it can take a winning system and make it go broke.

As a young bettor, I made mistakes in this realm and it cost me.  The feeling of chasing losses is inherent in most of us.  As a species, it was imperative in order to survive to hoard resources.  Losing any of them could mean death.  This is why we have an aversion to loss that is much greater in its emotional impact than gains are. 

PGA pro's make more 10ft putts for par than they do for birdie.  This makes no sense since they should be the same but the reason is a bogey is a loss while a par is not.  The player will be more aggressive on a par putt to avoid a loss while being a little more cautious on the birdie putt to assure no loss (a par).  The result is also more double bogeys.  But the players' emotion is if I lose (bogey) what's the difference if I lose bigger (double bogey).  The...

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Using Teasers To Crush Your Book

 

After crushing week 1 in the preseason using Wong Teasers I thought I would go into more detail about what exactly these Won Teasers are and why they are effective.

 

Teaser bets are parlays in which you are able to move the line a set amount of points in your favor.  For the NFL it will typically be 6-7 points.  The number of points the book allows you to move the line and the number of games in the teaser will determine the juice.  A typical sportsbook will offer

Teams                                   Points

                                6             ...

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