One of the most painful days of the NFL season is the day you are eliminated from your survivor pool. You pick a 7 point favorite at home and they get upset out of nowhere. Of course, you will track the next few weeks to see how you would have done and inevitably you would have kept on winning. So frustrating.
If you are unfamiliar with survivor pools or knockout pools the rules are pretty easy. You select 1 (sometimes multiple) teams each week without a point spread. That team must win (in some cases tie) and you advance to the next week. If your team loses you are out of the pool. You may only pick a team once and then never use them again.
It goes without saying that the fewer entries you are competing with the greater the chance you have of winning. Entering a pool of 20 entrants gives you a 5% chance as opposed to one with 100 entries which give you a 1% chance. How we look at percentages and human...
Once again I will be going over each teams win total with juice based on the current lines at Pinnacle. The below table shows my expected win total for each team. I calculated the EV based on the expected wins and the current line with a to win amount of $100. If your lines differ much from Pinnacle you will need to calculate the EV based on those lines. If you sign up for my free beginners course you will understand better how to calculate that along with a spreadsheet to give you the probability of the occurrence based on the juice.
I first looked at the totals against my model 3 weeks ago. Most of these moves have gone against us. If you were able to get in on the prices then you have a lot more value than if you play them today. But there is still value to be had.
Obviously, the big mover has been the Colts for obvious reasons. Andrew Luck was in a category similar to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Until Rodgers last...
Bankroll management and risk management are so critical that when done wrong or not at all it can take a winning system and make it go broke.
As a young bettor, I made mistakes in this realm and it cost me. The feeling of chasing losses is inherent in most of us. As a species, it was imperative in order to survive to hoard resources. Losing any of them could mean death. This is why we have an aversion to loss that is much greater in its emotional impact than gains are.
PGA pro's make more 10ft putts for par than they do for birdie. This makes no sense since they should be the same but the reason is a bogey is a loss while a par is not. The player will be more aggressive on a par putt to avoid a loss while being a little more cautious on the birdie putt to assure no loss (a par). The result is also more double bogeys. But the players' emotion is if I lose (bogey) what's the difference if I lose bigger (double bogey). The...
After crushing week 1 in the preseason using Wong Teasers I thought I would go into more detail about what exactly these Won Teasers are and why they are effective.
Teaser bets are parlays in which you are able to move the line a set amount of points in your favor. For the NFL it will typically be 6-7 points. The number of points the book allows you to move the line and the number of games in the teaser will determine the juice. A typical sportsbook will offer
The question of whether or not to hedge a bet gets asked of me quite often. More often than not the answer for me is no but it is not that cut and dry. You really need to look at each case on an individual basis.
The reason I usually reply with a "no" when asked the hedging question is just about every bet you make with a sportsbook has a negative expected value (EV). That is unless you have a model or system that flips your EV to positive. In a hedging situation, you are betting against your system that told you to make the bet initially. If you are a +EV player and this bet was presumably +EV then why take the other side which is not only -EV for the average bettor but presumably even greater -EV being that it is on the other side of a sharp +EV bet?
Here is a real-life situation I am faced with today. If you followed my plays from yesterday you know we had pretty good success with the teasers. I mentioned in that video...
Once again I will be going over each teams win total with juice based on the current lines at Pinnacle. The below table shows my expected win total for each team. I calculated the EV based on the expected wins and the current line. The bet sizes are all to win 100 which in this case will be 1 unit. Adjust accordingly based on your unit size. If your lines differ much from Pinnacle you will need to calculate the EV based on those lines. If you sign up for my free beginners course you will understand better how to calculate that along with a spreadsheet to give you the probability of the occurrence based on the juice.
2019 Win Total Bets Table
|Team||Exp Wins||Exp Losses||Total||Over Juice||Under Juice||Over EV||Under EV||Bet Amt Over||Bet Amt Under|