2019 Week 3 Power Rankings

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Firstly I want to go over how you should be reading these numbers and what they mean.

The power rating column is a power rating on each team.  It is based on what the team has done statistically and who they have done it against.  Early in the season, the ratings go back to the last few weeks of the previous season adjusting for changes at major positions.  You could set a point spread based on the power rating by taking the differential in two teams and adjusting by 2.5 for home-field advantage.

The Defensive rating is the number of points the team is expected to give up to an average offense.

The Offensive rating is the number of points the team is expected to score against an average defense.

The offensive rushing rating is a number that calculates how far above or below the team performs in yardage against the average of their opponents.  In other words if a team plays a defense that averages 100 yards against in rushing they will get more credit for 120 yard rushing game than if they faced a team that averaged 140 yards rushing against.

The offensive passing rating works exactly the same as the rushing.

The defensive rushing rating is the same as the offensive rushing rating but for the defense.  A positive number here is better than a negative one.  Meaning the team holds opponents under their typical average rushing game.

The defensive passing rating works the same as the defensive rushing rating.

I have been doing these ratings since 2012 and I have never seen such a disparity between the top and bottom teams as I have this year.  That has obviously been seen in the lopsided point spreads so far with three games in 3 weeks having spreads of 3 TDs or more.

As we continue to get data we will see New England drop a bit.  That is unless they can continue blowing out every opponent they face.  The defense is ranked tops right now on my list. 

They are good but I think the 2nd team in the rankings, the Chicago Bears, are likely the best defense in the league.  They have a chance to be one of the great defenses of all time.  If they can get anything out of the offense this will be a tough team to beat all season long.  As of right now, their 26th overall offensive ranking says they can not.

It is no surprise that Baltimore sits on top in the rushing rating.  If they continue to throw the ball with the success they have in 2019 you will see that offensive passer rating flip to positive as we erase some 2018 games from the rankings.  Baltimore runs it well but they can also stop the run.  The current ranking is 4th but less than a point away from the second place Chicago Bears.

As Baltimore was no surprise on the offensive rushing side the Kansas City Chiefs are tops in passing by a large margin.  The surprise team in that category is the team in 3rd the NY Giants.  With the offense now getting a boost from Daniel Jones start to look at the Giants as a viable option for DFS in coming weeks.

I am not breaking anything major hear when I say bad teams are going to give up more rushing yardage against their opponents average than the better teams.  For one they are bad teams and likely are not good at stopping the run but they also fall into the wrong side of lopsided games often which means the opposing team will be running it a lot more.  Miami, Arizona, Carolina, Washington, and Cincinnati are the worst teams in this group.  Interestingly Kansas City is the next worse.  You would not expect a team that plays in front most of its games to be so bad on rushing defense but they are.  Do not be afraid of RBs playing the Chiefs.

If we are starting to like the Giants offense then we will love the game stacks involving the Giants.  They are by far the worst ranked defense against the pass on the list.  Another team worth looking at down at the bottom are the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles are 6th in offensive passing with a rank third from the bottom in passing defense.

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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