Once again I will be going over each teams win total with juice based on the current lines at Pinnacle. The below table shows my expected win total for each team. I calculated the EV based on the expected wins and the current line. The bet sizes are all to win 100 which in this case will be 1 unit. Adjust accordingly based on your unit size. If your lines differ much from Pinnacle you will need to calculate the EV based on those lines. If you sign up for my free beginners course you will understand better how to calculate that along with a spreadsheet to give you the probability of the occurrence based on the juice.
2019 Win Total Bets Table
|Team||Exp Wins||Exp Losses||Total||Over Juice||Under Juice||Over EV||Under EV||Bet Amt Over||Bet Amt Under|
|Carolina||8.0||8.0||7.5||-184||153||4||-10||No Bet||No Bet|
|Cincinnati||5.9||10.1||6||113||-135||-5||-2||No Bet||No Bet|
|Dallas||8.3||7.7||9||105||-125||-6||-1||No Bet||No Bet|
|Green Bay||8.1||7.9||9.5||124||-148||-10||3||No Bet||No Bet|
|Jacksonville||7.2||8.8||8||115||-137||-3||-5||No Bet||No Bet|
|Kansas City||9.3||6.7||10.5||104||-124||-18||11||No Bet||$124.00|
|LA Chargers||9.7||6.3||9.5||-152||127||-21||7||No Bet||$78.74|
|LA Rams||10.1||5.9||10.5||122||-146||13||-28||$81.97||No Bet|
|Minnesota||8.6||7.4||9||-107||-111||-12||4||No Bet||No Bet|
|New England||10.9||5.1||11||-114||-104||-15||6||No Bet||$104.00|
|New Orleans||10.1||5.9||10.5||138||-165||17||-38||$72.46||No Bet|
|NY Giants||7.5||8.5||6||138||-165||54||-92||$72.46||No Bet|
|NY Jets||6.4||9.6||7||-163||136||-40||20||No Bet||$73.53|
|Oakland||5.2||10.8||6||114||-136||-5||-3||No Bet||No Bet|
|San Francisco||7.1||8.9||8||-150||126||-33||17||No Bet||$79.37|
|Seattle||8.7||7.3||8.5||-119||100||-5||-5||No Bet||No Bet|
|Tampa Bay||7.6||8.4||6.5||-101||-117||34||-46||$101.00||No Bet|
|Tennessee||7.4||8.6||8||120||-143||-1||-7||No Bet||No Bet|
How is the Expected Wins calculated?
The bulk of the input in the model is based on the previous season's statistics. More specifically how well/poor each team does in each stat in relation to how well/poor the team they played are in that stat. The model then runs through the entire schedule and figures out the expected points for and against for every team. That is run through the Pythagorean win expectation for the NFL to figure out what the teams expected wins and losses should be.
In previous years we stayed away from unders on the elite QB's because those few QB's have been able to outperform the stats their team has put up. I have speculated as to why that may be but the most important thing to know is that it is. Because of that the data now reflects the advantage those QB's may add to their teams win total.
The final adjustment is for major player changes to teams. I use the estimated worth of each player to the point spread to adjust. This becomes a little more difficult with rookie QB's. In general they do not get much of a bump at all unless the QB the previous season played at a level below a starting QB in the league.
The system spit out a lot of potential plays this season. I have gone through it and eliminated a couple of plays. You may have less if you are not getting as good a line as Pinnacle may have.
New England and Indianapolis got a bump up in their ratings due to their QB's. With that bump, they barely qualify for an Over play. Since it is a bit of a guess as to how high to bump them I feel OK leaving them both off of my plays.
Baltimore is the team the system really likes at o8.5 +114. Baltimore is running an offense with Lamar Jackson at QB far different than any other team in the league. With passing at a premium Baltimore is more of a running team finishing 3rd in my rushing rankings last year. That 3rd place finish was with Jackson starting just 7 games. I expect them to be even better this year with the addition of Mark Ingram. In the Jackson games teams did not know how to handle their offense. I expect the league to catch up a bit. The question will become can Jackson improve upon his throwing skills. The word out of Baltimore is looking good in the passing game and throwing it well. If that is true the duel threat he possesses may be enough to take them a long way.
Another over that comes in pretty high is the NY GIants o6 +138. I think this line is reflecting the probability of rookie QB Daniel Jones taking over for Eli Manning at some point in the season. While Eli is not my favorite QB in the league and has been a merely average player statistically his entire career he is likely to be better than Jones at this point in Jones' development. I think there is enough wiggle room here to account for any dropoff we may see at the QB position to go ahead and hit that NYG over button.
Tampa Bay o6.5 -101 is the 3rd best over play we have. I moved down to the Tampa area this year after leaving my job in NYC so I have been hearing quite a bit about this team. Bruce Arians takes over as the new head coach after a 2 year hiatus from coaching due to health issues. Fitz-magic is gone and Jameis Winston takes over as the main guy behind center once again. Arians is not my favorite in-game coach which makes me a bit leery taking him on the over. What he is very good at is coaching players, specifically quarterbacks. It is tough to judge how much a coach helped Peyton Manning, Big Ben and Andrew Luck I think we can give Arians some credit for the rebirth of Carson Palmer. Palmer flourished under Arians in Arizona. The hope is Winston takes a step forward this season and with that so do the Bucs.
Our largest Under is Philadelphia u9.5 +151. The juice here is just too good to pass up. 10 wins is not going to be easy for Philadelphia despite the bottom of the division being a bit weak. They will be playing the following teams on the road, Atlanta, Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas while getting Detroit, Chicago, New England, Seattle, Dallas at home. Nick Foles is gone to Jacksonville. In the last two seasons he has saved Philly when Carson Wentz has been injured including winning the Super Bowl in the '17-'18 season. There is not much of a difference in the 2 quarterbacks statistically so if you are bumping them up with Wentz in the lineup that is incorrect. The big worry for Philly is if Wentz goes down again can Nate Sudfeld step up like Foles did? It is very unlikely and we will see that in the line moves. Of course we can not make a bet based on hoping for an injury but even without one we are in a pretty good spot here. The market is pretty high on Philly so selling at this price should be +EV.
It is likely no surprise that we will be looking at Cleveland for the u9 -106. With all the hype surrounding this team the market has gone a bit too far. The model thinks they get to about 8 wins which wouldn't be a terrible season normally for the Browns but this isn't your fathers Browns. Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt(upon return from suspension), and David Njoku looks to be a pretty formidable offense on paper. They very well could be a top 10 offense but not get to 10 wins which it is going to take to beat us. The division will be tough with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Their tough non-divisional road games are San Francisco, New England and Denver. At home they get Seattle, Detroit, Tennessee, LA Rams. Nobody will be shocked if Cleveland finishes third ahead of Cincinnati
Baltimore 8.5 +114
Buffalo 6.5 -165
Chicago 9.5 +130
Denver 7 -103
Detroit 6.5 -149
Houston 8.5 +120
LA Rams 10.5 +122
Miami 4.5 -121
New Orleans 10.5 +138
NY Giants 6 +138
Pittsburgh 9 -109
Tampa Bay 6.5 -101
Washington 6.5 +147
Arizona 5 +125
Atlanta 9 -147
Cleveland 9 -106
Kansas City 10.5 -124
LA Chargers 9.5 +127
NY Jets 7 +136
Philadelphia 9.5 +151
San Francisco 8 +126