Updated 2019 NFL Win Totals

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Once again I will be going over each teams win total with juice based on the current lines at Pinnacle.  The below table shows my expected win total for each team.  I calculated the EV based on the expected wins and the current line with a to win amount of $100.  If your lines differ much from Pinnacle you will need to calculate the EV based on those lines.  If you sign up for my free beginners course you will understand better how to calculate that along with a spreadsheet to give you the probability of the occurrence based on the juice.

I first looked at the totals against my model 3 weeks ago.  Most of these moves have gone against us.  If you were able to get in on the prices then you have a lot more value than if you play them today.  But there is still value to be had.

Obviously, the big mover has been the Colts for obvious reasons.  Andrew Luck was in a category similar to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.  Until Rodgers last year these 3 have been able to win more than their team stats would indicate they should.  The bulk of that falls on the QB.  It is hard to pinpoint exactly what they are doing differently in order to get the maximum wins out of their total yardage.  We usually find outliers every year.  The season is only 16 games long so with that kind of sample size luck can turn a 7 win team into a 10 win team or vice versa very easily.  But on a consistent basis, those QB's won more than they should have so we have to think they are either, getting more calls from refs, executing in the big spots at a higher level, taking risks when it is warranted, managing the game situations better, or perhaps another reason.  In all likelihood, it is a combination of things I stated and some more.  

One other outperforming team has less to do with QB and more to do with the head coach.  Andy Reid has outperformed his expected win total at a fairly consistent level going back to 2011.  Every year it seems both he and Belichick are the coaches who are seemingly the "luckiest".  After a while, you have to assume they are not lucky but just very good at winning football games.  We do not have enough Mahomes data yet but fading him with Andy Reid does not seem like a play I want to make after checking the data.  So while the model likes that under I will stay away.

Many of you might have assumed the Houston line would move toward the under with the Lamar Miller news.  It has actually moved the other way.  We liked the o8.5 +120 but now at -110 the value has been sucked out of that play.  A good lesson to learn if you are unfamiliar with how players move lines is that most players have very little effect on the line.  As long as it is just one player.  If several offensive linemen are out or an entire WR core it will certainly move the line but most individual players do not.  Especially non QB's.  Lamar Miller is essentially very replaceable.  Duke Johnson is currently slated to take the bulk of the carries but look to Houston to make a move for a veteran back to lighten the load on Duke.  Either way, the production they get at RB should not change much.

Summary

Overs

Baltimore 08.5 -108

Chicago o9.5 +132

Denver o7 -114

Detroit o6.5 -143

LA Rams o10.5 +130

Miami o4.5 -130

NY Giants o10.5 +109

Tampa Bay o6.5 -114

Washington o6.5 +165

Unders

Arizona u5 +112

Atlanta u9 -155

Cleveland u9 -130

Indianapolis u7.5 -109

NY Jets u7 +147

Philadelphia u9.5 +156

San Francisco u8 102

 

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