Using Teasers To Crush Your Book

 

After crushing week 1 in the preseason using Wong Teasers I thought I would go into more detail about what exactly these Won Teasers are and why they are effective.

 

Teaser bets are parlays in which you are able to move the line a set amount of points in your favor.  For the NFL it will typically be 6-7 points.  The number of points the book allows you to move the line and the number of games in the teaser will determine the juice.  A typical sportsbook will offer

Teams                                   Points

                                6              6.5          7

2                              -110       -120       -130

3                              +180      +160      +150

4                              +300      +250      +200

5                              +450      +400      +350

6                              +700      +600      +500

 

About 39% of NFL games land on a margin of 3 – 7.  That is a significant amount of games.  It is obvious that because of the scoring in the NFL games will tend to land in that area especially on the 3 and 7.  TO take advantage of the teasers in the most effective way we can we want to move games through the 3 and 7.  So that means on a 6 point teaser you are moving games where the line is +1.5, +2, +2.5 up to +7.5, +8, +8.5.  On the flip side you want to move favorites of -7.5, -8, -8.5 down to -1.5, -2, -2.5.  These teaser games have hit around 75% as opposed to a 68% hit rate on teasing any line.  That increase is important because at -110 on a 2 team teaser you need to be successful 72.7% of the time to break even  Below is the breakeven list.

2 team teaser

@+110                                  69%

@Even                                  70.7%

@-110                                   72.4%

@-120                                   73.9%

@-130                                   75.2%

@-140                                   75.4%

 

3 Team Teaser

@+180                                  70.9%

@+170                                  71.8%

@+160                                  72.7%

@+150                                  73.7%

@+140                                  74.7%

@+130                                  75.8%

@+120                                  76.9%

@+110                                  78.1%

@even                                 79.4%

 

As you can see the juice is really important.  Check with your book before playing these.  If you can get -110 or better on a 2 team and +160 or better on the 3 team then I would go ahead and pull the trigger on these teasers. 

 

If you have a system or model or you are following my model then you may see even more success playing games that both fit the model and the Wong teaser lines. 

 

Hopefully, you will use this as another tool in your tool belt to help you take down the sportsbooks.

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