I Am Alive In My Teasers With One Game To Go. Do I Hedge?

 

The question of whether or not to hedge a bet gets asked of me quite often.  More often than not the answer for me is no but it is not that cut and dry.  You really need to look at each case on an individual basis.

The reason I usually reply with a "no" when asked the hedging question is just about every bet you make with a sportsbook has a negative expected value (EV).   That is unless you have a model or system that flips your EV to positive.  In a hedging situation, you are betting against your system that told you to make the bet initially.  If you are a +EV player and this bet was presumably +EV then why take the other side which is not only -EV for the average bettor but presumably even greater -EV being that it is on the other side of a sharp +EV bet?

Here is a real-life situation I am faced with today.  If you followed my plays from yesterday you know we had pretty good success with the teasers.  I mentioned in that video...

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Statsationals 2019 NFL Win Totals Bets

Once again I will be going over each teams win total with juice based on the current lines at Pinnacle.  The below table shows my expected win total for each team.  I calculated the EV based on the expected wins and the current line.  The bet sizes are all to win 100 which in this case will be 1 unit.  Adjust accordingly based on your unit size.  If your lines differ much from Pinnacle you will need to calculate the EV based on those lines.  If you sign up for my free beginners course you will understand better how to calculate that along with a spreadsheet to give you the probability of the occurrence based on the juice.

 

2019 Win Total Bets Table

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Team Exp Wins Exp Losses Total Over Juice Under Juice Over EV Under EV Bet Amt Over Bet Amt Under
Arizona 4.2 11.8 5 -149 125 -34 18 No Bet $80.00
Atlanta 7.5 8.5 9 123 -147 -23 22 No Bet $147.00
Baltimore 10.5 5.5 8.5 114 -136 56 -80 $87.72 No Bet
Buffalo 7.5 8.5 6.5 -165 138 13
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