I Am Alive In My Teasers With One Game To Go. Do I Hedge?

 

The question of whether or not to hedge a bet gets asked of me quite often.  More often than not the answer for me is no but it is not that cut and dry.  You really need to look at each case on an individual basis.

The reason I usually reply with a "no" when asked the hedging question is just about every bet you make with a sportsbook has a negative expected value (EV).   That is unless you have a model or system that flips your EV to positive.  In a hedging situation, you are betting against your system that told you to make the bet initially.  If you are a +EV player and this bet was presumably +EV then why take the other side which is not only -EV for the average bettor but presumably even greater -EV being that it is on the other side of a sharp +EV bet?

Here is a real-life situation I am faced with today.  If you followed my plays from yesterday you know we had pretty good success with the teasers.  I mentioned in that video...

Continue Reading...
Close

50% Complete

Sign Up To Get A Notification On When The Course Is Ready Along With A Discount Code.